Probabilistic finite element analysis of concrete gravity dams

Abstract

A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of concrete gravity dams is presented, Concrete properties and seismic excitation are considered as random variables. The seismic excitation is considered as a non-stationary stochastic process which is artificially generated. Concrete properties have random variations over the spatial domain. Structural response is obtained employing the finite element method to solve the equations of motion of the coupled system dam-reservoir-foundation. Structural safety is evaluated with respect to the main failure modes (cracking, concrete crushing and sliding at the dam-foundation interface) using the Monte Carlo method.